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EXPECTED RESULTS, GOULD THE SKEPTIC, AND THE
LAST OF MOE.
(FLASH! Still no response from Florsheim
or from DKL!)
 A very
busy week that included three lectures in California (UC Irvine,
JPL, and The Skeptics Society) as well as a day's taping for
the Discovery Channel, mean that this week's page will perhaps
be a bit late appearing. Entirely my fault.
I mentioned that a volunteer group in Utah
would be conducting a preliminary test of a claim of the JREF
million-dollar challenge this last weekend. It took place on
Saturday, and I will briefly describe here the results.
This is the kind of encounter that brings
no satisfaction to anyone involved. The performers -- who in
this case were well aware of their trick -- and those who had
been duped into sponsoring the test, along with the people who
conducted the test, were not at all rewarded.
When we first heard from the two chaps who
answered the challenge on behalf of some Indonesian mystics/martial
artists, it was perfectly clear what trick they were using to
deceive them, and that was fully verified when we viewed the
videotape that they sent to us. It's a very old act, one that
has been known since medieval times. The performers claim that
they can see without the use of their eyes, and a great variety
of explanations are given, from facial skin and fingertips being
able to "read," to just a general clairvoyant ability.
In fact, a couple of decades ago, parapsychologists were exulting
over their discovery of "dermo-optical perception,"
and a plethora of performers from little girls to older Indian
men were appearing everywhere showing how they could ride bicycles,
read and write, and describe colors and actions while apparently
blinded. In Mexico, the Instituto Mas Vida flourished,
teaching the children of wealthy but not-too-smart parents to
"see" while blindfolded. They were actually teaching
the kids that cheating by peeking was quite okay, but getting
caught at it was a no-no.
From what we saw in the videotape, these Indonesian
performers were not at all good at the act. We saw them doing
a number of stunts, every one of which was possible simply by
peeking down the side of the nose, past the blindfolds they wore.
They were even seen to readjust their blindfolds when the line-of-sight
became blocked! Despite our analysis, with specific references
to examples in the videotape where the performers were clearly
seen to raise their heads to peek, their sponsors refused to
recognize their perfidy. We pleaded with them not to proceed
further, but as we expected, they took that to signify our fear
of losing the million dollars, and became all the more determined
to go further in this bad investment. We were helpless to save
them from their decision. They announced that the Indonesians
would be arriving in Utah prepared to be tested.
It took us some time to find volunteers in
Utah who could conduct the required preliminary test for us,
but finally we had Chris Allen, Professor John Sohl and Paul
Bernhardt, Both from Weber State University, along with Harald
Illig and Seth Jarvis, developing a protocol to which I added
suggestions. After much back-and-forth discussion, last Saturday
was agreed on, and the preliminary test took place. There were
no surprises for us at all. The claimants failed dramatically.
They opted to perhaps try again early this week, but we do not
expect any better results. A more complete report will follow
next week.
........................................................................
On another matter, the three nice women from
Lithuania who came by last week, returned this week to have a
full report on the results of the diagnosis they'd offered me.
Originally hopeful of winning the JREF million-dollar prize,
they had already been told that it was far from accurate, and
as I expected, my doctors had agreed that it was absolutely incorrect
in every respect. As a result, the full report might have been
expected to be a disappointment to them. But it was only a matter
of wonderment to them.
They had no comprehension of the fact that
they were simply wrong. The one who had performed the diagnosis
told me that it was still true that I had a serious problem with
my left kidney. I told her that my physicians had performed
tests that showed no such condition. The response was that doctors
simply did not know, but that she did, and that my kidney
was in bad shape. I asked her what her conclusion would be if,
two years from now, I still showed no symptoms and medical tests
indicated that the kidney was still functioning as expected.
She told me that two, four, six, or twenty years could go by
and I might even die of other causes, without the condition ever
showing up. Then how, I repeated, could she ever be shown to
be wrong? All three laughed, and assured me that she was never
wrong. And that, for them, was a complete answer.
They just have no way of allowing for their
being wrong. "What if the Sun doesn't rise tomorrow?"
would be just as ridiculous a question to have posed to them,
in their way of thinking. I've been faced with this attitude
before, but I have never been able to handle it properly.
The interpreter got very serious, and told
me that their major reason for coming to see me was to have my
input on a question of great importance to them. What, she asked,
was the source of the claimants wonderful power? Did it come
directly from God, was it inherited, could science explain it?
I told them that I'd seen no evidence of the power they claimed,
and in any case was not qualified to declare on such philosophical
matters.
I suggested that I could find a person with
an established ailment, one that even persons such as ordinary
doctors had established to be present, and submit that person
for testing by this sincere woman, immediately following my return
to Florida from California. That was greeted eagerly by all
three, and I was assured that the diagnosis would be a great
success.
The diagnosis done of me, a failure in every
respect since it called for conditions that are not there and
missed two conditions that are established, had not fazed the
Lithuanians one bit. What I and my doctors believed to be true
was not true, and what she had declared, was. It was that elementary
to them. By such standards, they will always be right. But
this is only further indication that a substantial percentage
of us have no understanding of the critical thinking process.
This week, I'll conduct the promised test.
It's certainly not going to prove anything one way or the other
to these nice folks, since they will accept a success and reject
a failure. But it's a small part of what we do here at the JREF.
I only wish that episodes like this could lead to better understanding
between us, rather than widening the differences.
........................................................................
Michael Shermer continues to enjoy great success
with his conferences, this time attracting 700+ attendees from
across the country to honor a friend and famed writer, columnist,
scientist, and teacher, who was his charming, garrulous self,
as expected. The get-together was titled, "Festschrift
in Honor of Stephen Jay Gould." Bill Nye -- The Science
Guy -- along with others including inventor Paul MacCready, author/psychologist
Carol Tavris, senior editor of Natural History Richard Milner,
and myself, assembled to honor Stephen at CalTech. It was a
huge success, and as usual I learned a lot along the way.
........................................................................
 Just
imagine what intellect is expended by the astrologers as they
labor over their charts -- now via computer -- to produce significant
advice to guide millions of followers -- who also tend to buy
lottery tickets and wear magnets in their shoes. The burden
of responsibility must be enormous, knowing that astrology is
often the only means these folks have of knowing what to do with
their lives.
I cannot resist mentioning that in The American
Way, American Airlines in-flight magazine, we can still find
the column by Michael Lutin, the adored astrologer of many of
the women's magazines. Some of you will recall the discussion
I had with AA some time ago about this, resulting in their changing
the name of his column from "Horoscope" to "A
Cosmic Joke." It's now back to its former title, and appears
under "Diversions." I suppose we should be grateful
that it's not under "Science."
Here's an example of the uplifting wisdom
dispensed by Lutin, this one under "Pisces."
Unless you have a profound and enriching
inner life, you are sunk. Even if you are among the rich, famous,
and very powerful, without a deeply abiding faith in a Divine
Plan, you could blow your success and throw away everything you've
worked to build. Of course, when you get high enough, you could
come to the realization that nothing in this world matters very
much anyway.
Gee, aren't you glad you saw this inspiring,
specific, sophisticated, constructive, and meaningful advice?
Where would we be without Michael Lutin, I ask you? The higher
wisdom displayed here is obviously the result of analyzing the
relationships between the stars and the planets. How could that
be
doubted . . . ?
........................................................................
A reader sent the following to me to comment
on the airport security caveats I'd expressed here. I've removed
specifics so that identities are protected.
Just a blurb to reinforce your comments
regarding the lack of real security at airports. What is there,
is generally (I stress 'generally') sufficient to deter or detect
the average amateur, but not sufficient, in most airports, to
detect a professional with training, resources, or moxy.
I am in real life a safety and security
professional, with a background as an officer of Military Intelligence
in the Army (9 years active duty, 7 years in the Reserves and
still going). I have never been in charge of airport security
directly, but as a security manager in [city], I was part of
the company that has the security contract for [airport] (this
was back in 95-97). During that time there were some serious
incidents, and the FAA, pushed by Clinton-Gore as a political
stump, threw money and regulations at it. Without going into
details (on which I am admittedly not an expert anyway), I will
only say that the result was a security decrease because all
the money went into administrative areas instead of physical
or personnel areas.
As an example, there was an across-the-board
requirement for all airport security officers to undergo an FAA
background check before they could begin work at all. The unintended
consequence was/is a lagtime of approximately 6 months from the
time an officer applied to work and the time he could actually
begin work. And we're talking about entry level jobs here; blue
collar workers who need a paycheck now and can't wait 6 months
so they move on. The FAA was simply unprepared to handle the
caseload. Even when an officer completed the background check,
it was no sure guarantee of his/her reliability since the FAA
screening is notoriously lax and insufficient while paradoxically
being too exclusive.
I am a personal example: The company with
the [airport] contract is [named] Security, a division of the
company I was in . . . . As elements of the same parent company,
we had some overlap in operations and on infrequent occasions
would supplement each other in regard to manpower and management
support. I was a mid-level manager and could perfectly legally
run the security operations of [airport], but I could not, under
the new FAA rules, work at [airport] as a security guard, even
though they would have to respond to my directives. Further,
as a Military Intelligence Officer with a TS/SBI security clearance,
the background checks that I have undergone and continue to undergo
every 5 years are far more exhaustive than the FAA checks, but
the FAA would not consider them in lieu of their own screening.
A final short story: At Logan International
Airport in Boston back in 1989, I had to make some arrangements
regarding some specialized military travel. I chose to do this
on a Saturday when I was picking up a friend, so I was in civilian
clothes. I tried for about 30 minutes to politely make contact
with airport security and Customs but was rebuffed. So I finally
pulled out my normal green military ID card, which grants absolutely
no authority to its bearer. I stormed up to the first security
guard I could find, flashed my card, and said "I'm Captain
Vessels, Military Intelligence. I need to see your boss right
now." The guard fell over himself taking me to an office
and making me comfortable while he got the Security Director.
When the Director arrived, I said "You'd better get Customs
in here, too; I don't want to say this twice." He made
a quick call and Customs came running in. I pulled out a memo
I had done on my computer the night before which merely listed
two names and SSN's, and I gave it to them. I said "These
people will be flying through here on ---- carrying a briefcase.
Make sure no one touches it, x-rays it, or asks them to open
it." They couldn't agree fast enough and there was no problem
with the trip. I left satisfied with my job but scared to death
to fly again.
And don't get me started on my acquaintance
who regularly tested airport security with what amounts to a
decent magician's gimmicks and misdirection. He got grenades
(dummy ones) on board all the time . . .
........................................................................
The solution to the Caps Problem -- with Moe
unable to see -- is pretty straightforward. The possible combinations
of three caps are these 7:
(a) WWW
(b) WWR
(c) WRW
(d) RWW
(e) WRR
(f) RWR
(g) RRW (No RRR, because there are only 2 red caps available)
We further reduce this to 5:
(a) WWW
(b) WWR
(c) WRW
(d) RWW
(e) RRW
This, because we already know that neither
Curley nor Larry see 2 red caps showing, ("e" and "g")
but Moe cannot see at all, so RRW is included as a possible configuration.
For all of these 5 combos, Curley's comment
is the same as last time, so Moe only knows at that point that
he has an 80% chance of wearing a white cap. But when he hears
Larry say that he doesn't know either, Moe immediately knows
that he's wearing white. Why? Because if the "b"
combo were in place, Larry would have reasoned that since Curly
didn't see two red caps, and he himself could see that Moe was
wearing red, he -- Larry -- has to be white. But since Larry
doesn't say this, and "a", "c," "d,"
and "g" call for Moe being in white, that's Moe's conclusion!
Okay, we're retiring these three guys. For
a while at least. Bye-bye, Moe. A winner once more!
I regret, no puzzle this week. I've been
just too busy. But I'll make it up to you . . .
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