Comments for A Chance Encounter at http://www.randi.org/site , comment 1 to 45 out of 20 comments http://www.randi.org/site Sun, 22 Nov 2009 02:05:51 +0100 FeedCreator 1.7.3 http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/swift-blog/717-a-chance-encounter.html#comment-12283 This versatile styling tool has an ergonomic design and curved edge plates to create any style from straight to curly and everything in between. With a flash heating element and fixed temperature setting, the power to create the style of your dreams is your hands. [url=http://www.newshopstyle.co.uk]GHD Hair Straighteners[/url] [url=http://www.newshopstyle.co.uk]CHI Hair Straighteners[/url] - newshopstyle Mon, 02 Nov 2009 17:11:46 +0100 http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/swift-blog/717-a-chance-encounter.html#comment-11091 But I still have no direct interest in the answer. Now Jeff has acted as control you're going to run and hide? You're not very confident he did just as well as me are you? Herc - Herc Mon, 28 Sep 2009 11:42:29 +0100 http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/swift-blog/717-a-chance-encounter.html#comment-11089 Come on, seriously, this is as easy to point out the error in as anything else you type. The result of you knowing these numbers would mean that you are proving your power. And would give you information that would absolutely prove your power (along with one million dollars, which you obviously want, due to your attempts to claim the prize.). You obviously "want" to prove your power, and this would give you the information to do so. Hence this would obviously be information you would "want", if you legitimately believed you had a power. But as is obvious, you do not, you are simply looking for attention , as evidenced by your dodging of any protocol that would definitely disprove yourself, and attempting to set up a "test" in which a jref member comes to you. Honestly, i could spend the rest of my night citing reasons you would "want" to know the outcome of the random number generator. But i am going to do what i feel James, Jeff, and the rest of the jref should be doing, and simply ignore your claim, of what can only be described as a Non-power. - Sadhatter Mon, 28 Sep 2009 11:07:24 +0100 http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/swift-blog/717-a-chance-encounter.html#comment-11079 I designed a fair test which works with the "no judgement procedure" clause. Bibliomancy test protocol The test is done is 2 phases. Phase 1 I am given a printout of 100 questions with a declaration that the authors of the questions have a genuine interest in what the answers are. Questions like "What's in the envelope?", "What was my dead grandfather's hobby?", "What horse will win a race?" are not usable. I will review the questions and ask for replacements as required. My sister or another volunteer of my choosing is placed in a closed booth with no communications outside of the booth. I select one book to use for the entire 100 questions. I read out each question in turn. After each question I open a book to a random page, I begin reading the 1st words or sentence I focus on within 1/2 second of opening the page. I read a maximum of 2 sentences. 2 control participants use the same book and the same technique to get their 100 'answers'. Phase 2 The questions and the 3 randomly sorted answers for each question are printed out and given to my sister. She has 2 hours to mark which answer she thinks is the most appropriate. The number of times she selects my answer will be my score. The hypothesis is there is no normal means within the current understanding of science that a person in a closed booth could tell which phrases were selected by the claimant, as they were selected with a random process the same as the control's answers were. This is why the same book has to be used because someone familiar with the book could recognise some phrases, also the claimant should open the book at various positions, always selecting the final chapter could give a clue to who got those answers. What constitutes a pass? The average expected result is 33/100. According to the binomial distribution, see www.automeasure.com/chance.html For 1/3 probability, 100 trials, the expected result is between 21 - 45. To go outside this range defeats 100 to 1 odds. Unless JREF insists on 1000 to 1 odds for the preliminary test that will be my target (46/100). To defeat 10,000 to 1 odds, I must score outside this range For 1/3 probability, 100 trials, the expected result is between 15 - 52. To defeat 1,000,000 to 1 odds, I must score outside this range For 1/3 probability, 100 trials, the expected result is between 11 - 57. For the final test: If I defeat 100 to 1 odds, but not 1,000,000 to 1 odds, then I can do a 2nd and 3rd trial, one trial per day. Defeating 100 to 1 3 times running would defeat 1,000,000 to 1, or defeating 1,000 to 1 2 times running would also defeat 1,000,000 to 1. ----------------------------------- If JREF allow me to do the channelling using video conferencing, and a suitable volunteer at JREF can match the answers we could do the test as soon as you're ready. Herc - Herc Sun, 27 Sep 2009 20:06:31 +0100 http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/swift-blog/717-a-chance-encounter.html#comment-11076 I have a 2nd claim. I will donate $3000 to JREF if Randi or a staff member flies to Australia, meets me in public for 5 minutes, and if he can HEAR MY THOUGHTS I win the $1,000,000. If they want to go to a new location to verify there is no hidden PA somewhere I'll go anywhere they like. I did send my CC details to Aus Skeptics for a seat at Briskepticon but they never charged my card. Herc - Herc Sun, 27 Sep 2009 18:50:06 +0100 http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/swift-blog/717-a-chance-encounter.html#comment-11071 @Jeff, I answered your questions unfortunately you've gone quiet. You agreed to answer questions from a book to debunk my claim and now you refuse to let people see the video. Very strange for a professional skeptic. @SadHatter, I've had other people confirm my answers were better than the control phrase. Like I said from the start find a control phrase yourself. For the 10th time I only channel info I actually want, not random numbers. @James, you didn't email that question to notme@notgmail.com did you? I said use xxx@australia.edu in my sig. You're supposed to read emails to the end. The book is Burning Chrome by William Gibson. Why would I be afraid if you found a phrase that I did not channel? If Jeff has nothing to hide and comes forward, then we can compare the videos with the 3 new questions. Herc - Herc Sun, 27 Sep 2009 12:24:34 +0100 http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/swift-blog/717-a-chance-encounter.html#comment-11070 I did the test with the phrase you chose to point out that you simply were not interpreting the control sentence to mean anything because you didn't want to. Of course you , after making the questions can find a phrase that would be difficult to interpret as the answer. ( though not impossible, i am simply not wasting any more of my time with this particular vein of inquiry.) But we have proven that one phrase that you picked for the sole purpose of not making sense as the answer, can easily apply as well as any of your answers. The simple fact is that if you want it to almost any group of random words can have " meaning", sure there is going to be a few groupings that almost cannot be connected to a specific question, but that is like playing darts and thinking you won by not hitting the bullseye. And none of this is even scratching the surface of the fact that your answers are things that are not easily verified. Why not simply sit down with a random number generator. Ask which number will come up, do your thing, then when you have your phrase, divine from it what the next number will be. After you have done this THEN hit the number generator. If you have a power you should be very nearly 100% accurate. If not your guesses will fall into random chance , maybe slightly above, maybe slightly below. But remember before trying this at home the key is to get your bibliomantic answer BEFORE the number is generated. This takes away the subjectivity and ability to fool yourself. - Sadhatter Sun, 27 Sep 2009 11:59:49 +0100 http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/swift-blog/717-a-chance-encounter.html#comment-11063 FYI - I asked "Herc" for the name of the book he used in his ridiculous bibliomancy test video. He ignored the request, indicating that he feared I'd find other phrases or words there that did NOT satisfy his needs. I never heard back from him... - randi Sun, 27 Sep 2009 03:57:18 +0100 http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/swift-blog/717-a-chance-encounter.html#comment-11048 Maybe I needed more than 17 minutes between your posts to upload to Youtube?? - Herc Sat, 26 Sep 2009 18:41:27 +0100 http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/swift-blog/717-a-chance-encounter.html#comment-11047 Sigh.. for those following, Herc asked permission to post my video on his site with one he made as well. I asked him some questions about it, and he didn't answer. He didn't reply at all as of this writing. So I sent the e-mail that I was going to bed. I'll let him post the video when he answers my questions. - JeffWagg Sat, 26 Sep 2009 18:29:24 +0100 http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/swift-blog/717-a-chance-encounter.html#comment-11044 [quote]Ok, it's after midnight, and I'm going to bed. You do not have my permission to post the video. Jeff [/quote] Gee thanks Jeff, very open scientific method you have there. - Herc Sat, 26 Sep 2009 18:24:09 +0100 http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/swift-blog/717-a-chance-encounter.html#comment-11041 I did agree to do it on video, though like the vast majority of you, I know that ANYONE could do this at any time. It may seem cruel that I'm humoring Herc in this way, but I'm doing it out of research. I will not entertain these vanities with other challenge applicants. - JeffWagg Sat, 26 Sep 2009 17:09:54 +0100 http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/swift-blog/717-a-chance-encounter.html#comment-11040 Ok, try it with the control phrase "I would like a hard boiled egg". I just got the funniest email from Jeff Wagg. He CLAIMS he got these answers to the questions! [quote]I grabbed the book "The History and Mystery of the Menger Hotel" off the shelf. Its not a book of much importance to me. Here are the questions and answers: Why are you being tortured by the government? "... historical associations" [/quote] HAHAHAHAHA he just gave the exact answer why the government tortures people, he just broke million to one odds with that answer. All his other answers were chosen aswell, like "she was presented with the Aladesa award" to answer if Megan Fox won the Oscar. I suggested Jeff try to do it on video since he broke a trillion to one odds with all his answers, see if he complies. Hint: he won't do it on video. What a mob of lying cheaters. Herc - Herc Sat, 26 Sep 2009 16:40:05 +0100 http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/swift-blog/717-a-chance-encounter.html#comment-11029 In each of the questions the control phrase is just as applicable as yours. Both rely on interpretation and in all cases since the outcome is unknown, either is a "right" as the other. You are simply not applying the same amount of thought to your the control phrase as your picked phrase. Let me illustrate "can i win the million dollar paranormal prize" The answer is referencing the fact that previously winning has been a problem, and that this trend will continue in the future. When will herc die? At some point in your past you have came close to death. This will be the same method you will die in the future. How do you know you are adam. The knowledge of being Adam, is gained through similar problems both you and adam have suffered in the past. There providing evidence you are the same person. What can Adam do that would qualify for the JREF million dollar prize? The answer is stating that even with powers it would be hard to prove the existance of said powers. Which ( from what some applicants would have use believe) has been quite a problem in the past. Why are you being tortured by the government? Your questions which have gotten you in trouble in the past are the reason that the government is torturing you. Will Megan Fox win the Oscar for best actress in 2010? This question has been bothering people for some time , look to her trend of winning awards in previous years to determine the outcome. Will Edmond Wollman ever pay back Susan Boyle? He has done things of this nature before, so he obviously will again this time. Now i must say this is all bullflop , but as you can see the control , if anything provided better answers than your random text. The point being, since you didn't want the control to seem like it made sense , it didn't make sense to you. Yet when i put a little thought behind it, the same way you did with your answers, suddenly it is a fortune telling. Both of us had the exact same results, neither of us have powers. I can assure you i am about as magical as a baked potato. There is nothing spooky about being able to connect any phrase to any question. It is simply pattern seeking. - Sadhatter Sat, 26 Sep 2009 11:50:57 +0100 http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/swift-blog/717-a-chance-encounter.html#comment-11017 Be my guest pick any vague phrase you like and compare it to the answers. I will use "this has been a very big problem in the past" Tally how many times my answer was more in context than the control phrase. Can I win the million dollar paranormal prize? "... with the background of wailing vendors" "this has been a very big problem in the past" When will Herc die? "... with a cheap little gun" "this has been a very big problem in the past" How do you know that you are Adam? "... I dunno" "this has been a very big problem in the past" What can Adam do that would qualify for the JREF million dollar prize? "Make them stop" "this has been a very big problem in the past" Why are you being tortured by the government? "... I'm a witch" "this has been a very big problem in the past" Will Megan Fox win the Oscar for best actress in 2010? "...in Tokyo Fox and I had adjoining suites" "this has been a very big problem in the past" Will Edmond Wollman ever pay back Susan Boyle? "..He never calls the place" "this has been a very big problem in the past" 7 out of 7. I defeated 1 in 128 odds. (Just with a simple 2 option analysis). - Herc Fri, 25 Sep 2009 15:43:38 +0100 http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/swift-blog/717-a-chance-encounter.html#comment-11014 A much easier way of debunking it is simply how many other things these vague phrases could mean. Anyone could do this, no matter what the phrases are they can be attributed as an answer. This is not a power, this is not even a party trick, this is Reading Random Phrases and then saying " i win". As well the ease of being able to cheat is only second to stealing candy from infants. there is no debunking needed, because there is no paranormal claim, your saying you can read something and find a way to make it kind of fit a question you ask. If yours is a paranormal power, then my ability to defy gravity for very limited amounts of time using only muscles in my leg surely qualifies as well. And as a final thought, if you want to gain knowledge from books, a better way would be to pick a book on the subject you want answers to and read the entire thing. - Sadhatter Fri, 25 Sep 2009 14:53:59 +0100 http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/swift-blog/717-a-chance-encounter.html#comment-11010 www.GreatestMagicShowOnEarth.com Actually I got 2 1/2 direct answers. How do you know you are Adam -> I dunno Why are the government torturing you -> I'm a witch Will Woollman ever pay back Susan Boyle -> He never calls the place The 2 JREF questions had very opinionated answers, I win while they weep, and to qualify I make them stop. Whether Megan Fox gets an Oscar I 'announced' the name Fox. I got a related answer to when I die, a description of how I die. Anyone going to do Randi's favorite debunking method and post a video with even better answers? - Herc Fri, 25 Sep 2009 12:57:20 +0100 http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/swift-blog/717-a-chance-encounter.html#comment-11004 I think I went to school with Claire Voyant. She got married to some basketball player. - Brookston John Fri, 25 Sep 2009 05:23:47 +0100 http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/swift-blog/717-a-chance-encounter.html#comment-11003 [quote]I had to dig around, but finally got to the 'greatest magic show on Earth'.[/quote] Herc's URL doesn't go anywhere (and it isn't on the wikipedia "Bibliomancy" page). Can you post a link to what you found? - TDjazz Fri, 25 Sep 2009 05:02:28 +0100 http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/swift-blog/717-a-chance-encounter.html#comment-11002 I had to dig around, but finally got to the 'greatest magic show on Earth'. There is a video of Herc asking questions and picking phrases at random from a book. The phrases picked from the book appear to have no relation to the questions asked, though Herc seems to think there is. One of the picked phrases has a word (fox) in common with the question and this is taken as significant. I must admit Herc does seem quite good natured about the whole thing, but this is no proof of physic powers. - RobbieD Fri, 25 Sep 2009 04:40:46 +0100